Writing
Equities pieces are valuations of individual companies, with financial models and price targets. Policy pieces are analyses of laws, regulations, and ballot measures. Commentary covers broader territory — capital allocation, sectors, sports economics, and the strategic puzzles facing companies.
Amazon to $750: A Compounder Thesis for 2030
AWS has re-accelerated for six straight quarters. Amazon's advertising business hit $69B in 2025. Logistics monetization just started. The case for $750 by year-end 2030.
Earlier work
Earlier writing originally published at Louisburg Strategies.
The Unfortunate (and Reluctant) Argument: In Favor of Appeasing Sports Owners
The economic case against stadium subsidies is correct. The political case for them is unbeatable. Why cities should keep paying.
The Barbarians or The Oracle: Two Ways to Build an Empire
Two firms have outperformed the S&P 500 over half a century. They could not be more different in how they did it.
A Billion Dollars A Day: The War We Were Promised Would Never Happen
The fiscal cost of military engagement with Iran, calculated from primary defense department data.
Washington State's Millionaire Tax: A Democrat's Case Against the Wrong Solution
Why a progressive ballot measure I would normally support is the wrong instrument for the problem it's trying to solve.