writing
equity pieces are valuations of individual companies, with financial models and price targets. policy pieces are analyses of laws, regulations, and ballot measures. commentary covers broader territory; capital allocation, sectors, sports economics, and the strategic puzzles facing companies.
Happy 250th Birthday, America: The Greatest Invention in Human History
Two hundred and fifty years ago a few improbably young men wrote down an impossible idea — that governments answer to the governed — and then made it real. A birthday card for America: proud, honest about the wrongs and the corrections it made, and certain the invention still works.
One Battle After Another: The War for the American Stomach
America's restaurant traffic isn't growing — which turns every food stock into a share war. Six names, paired into three battles: McDonald's vs Yum for value, Starbucks vs Dutch Bros for coffee, Chipotle vs Cava for the bowl. Same sector tag, three completely different fights.
Priceless: $MA Is Best in Class
Stablecoins, rate caps, AI agents — the market is pricing the death of the best business model ever invented, again. It priced the same death in 2010. Here's how that went, and why Mastercard is the one to own this time.
: Is Everyone Overthinking?
$META trades below 20x while printing money. Instagram alone is worth more than half the company, and you get the AI bet for free. Is everyone overthinking this?
Wall Street Refuses to Price This Bull Like the Mammoth It Truly Is
$NVDA at $5.21T is now the second-most-profitable company on Earth, behind only Alphabet, and on a run-rate to lead it outright, growing earnings 65%+ at a scale no company has ever sustained. The thesis is that earnings double from here at a compressed multiple. No re-rate required.
Jeff Bezos Suggests No Income Tax for the Bottom 50% of Workers. Is That Possible?
the math actually might be more generous than he claims, but definitely harder to accomplish than implied.
Am I DeLULU For Loving $LULU at $120??
no long term debt, strong overseas growth, and the rare brand that actually has a loyal customer base — why then does this stock keep losing money?
Amazon to $750: A Compounder Thesis for 2030
aws has re-accelerated for six straight quarters. amazon's advertising business hit $69b in 2025. logistics monetization just started. the case for $750 by year-end 2030.
earlier work
earlier writing originally published at louisburg strategies.
The Unfortunate (and Reluctant) Argument: In Favor of Appeasing Sports Owners
the economic case against stadium subsidies is correct. the political case for them is unbeatable. why cities should keep paying.
The Barbarians or The Oracle: Two Ways to Build an Empire
two firms have outperformed the S&P 500 over half a century. they could not be more different in how they did it.
A Billion Dollars A Day: The War We Were Promised Would Never Happen
the fiscal cost of military engagement with iran, calculated from primary defense department data.
Washington State's Millionaire Tax: A Democrat's Case Against the Wrong Solution
why a progressive ballot measure I would normally support is the wrong instrument for the problem it's trying to solve.