Sources: Share of Stomach
Market data is anchored to the July 1, 2026 close (Nasdaq.com end-of-day). Financials are from each company’s most recent earnings release / SEC 10-K, 10-Q, or 8-K and earnings-call transcripts, dated on or before July 2, 2026.
Prices, YTD, valuation (July 1, 2026 close)
| Price | YTD 2026 | Trailing P/E | Forward P/E | From high | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MCD | $269.43 | −11.8% | ~22x ($12.13 EPS) | ~20x | −20% (ATH $336.88, Feb 27 2026) |
| YUM | $161.59 | +6.8% | ~26x | ~24x | −3% (ATH $167.34, Feb 27 2026) |
| SBUX | $103.39 | +22.8% | ~79x GAAP (depressed) | ~44x on guide ($2.35 mid) | — |
| BROS | $73.31 | +19.7% | ~116x | ~73x (FY26 basis) | — |
| CMG | $35.00 | −5.4% | ~32x ($1.09 EPS) | ~28x | −49% (split-era ATH $68.55, Jun 18 2024) |
| CAVA | $79.78 | +36.0% | ~150x ($0.52 EPS) | ~130x | −54% (ATH $172.43, Nov 13 2024) |
Price tie-out. All twelve closes (six year-end 2025 + six July 1 2026) are Nasdaq.com end-of-day, cross-checked against stockanalysis.com; the two agree to the penny on every name. YUM additionally confirmed on digrin and investing.com; MCD confirmed on MarketBeat (YTD −11.7%); BROS confirmed on stockanalysis.com (BROS trades on the NYSE — the “Nasdaq.com” label refers to the data vendor, not the listing venue). Year-end 2025 closes used as the YTD base: MCD $305.63; YUM $151.28; SBUX $84.21; BROS $61.22; CMG $37.00; CAVA $58.69.
Notes: MCD’s Dec-31-2025 close of $305.63 puts YTD at −11.8% (a late-June “down ~4%” figure that circulated was a stale/mislabeled reading and is not used). CAVA’s trailing P/E uses $0.52 TTM diluted EPS (a stale $1.19 figure circulates — it predates the roll-off of a tax-boosted quarter — and understates the multiple). SBUX’s $2.25–$2.45 guide is non-GAAP adjusted; its trailing GAAP P/E is elevated because reported EPS is depressed by turnaround spend. YUM and BROS forward P/Es vary by provider and by whether the FY2026 or FY2027 estimate is used (BROS ~73x on FY2026, ~66–70x on FY2027). Sources: Nasdaq.com EOD; stockanalysis.com statistics/forecast pages, July 2026; Macrotrends (52-week/all-time highs).
Industry / macro
- US restaurant traffic below 1% in 2026 — Circana (David Portalatin), via Restaurant Dive / PRNewswire, “Persistent Cost Increases and Enduring Demand Will Shape the Restaurant Industry in 2026” (Dec 2025). 2025 traffic was −0.8% (Technomic).
- Fast-casual traffic: 3.3% (Dec 2024) → 1.7% (Oct 2025) — Technomic, via Nation’s Restaurant News / Restaurant Business Online (late 2025).
- Independent/specialty coffee taking share — directional. (The frequently cited “+3%” figure is World Coffee Portal’s UK Independents Report, not a US number; the “163% ‘local coffee near me’ search” figure traced only to a coffee-POS vendor blog with no reproducible Google Trends data and is not used.)
- GLP-1 usage: ~12% of US adults currently use one; ~18% have ever used one — KFF Health Tracking Poll, fieldwork Oct 27–Nov 2 2025, published Nov 14, 2025 (n=1,350).
- GLP-1 spending impact — Cornell University study, Journal of Marketing Research (Dec 2025): GLP-1 households cut grocery spend ~5.3% and fast-food/coffee/limited-service spend ~8% within six months; survey evidence is mixed (Restaurant Business Online reports some users spend more). Reported by CNBC (Mar 2026).
US-vs-international scope (FY2025 10-Ks)
The piece is a US-theater story; these figures anchor the “insurgents carry the frozen-US-pie risk; incumbents have an international hedge” scaffolding paragraph.
- McDonald’s — FY2025 segment operating income: US $5,808M (46.9%) vs. International (International Operated Markets $6,382M + International Developmental Licensed & Corp $203M = 53.1%). A majority of profit is now non-US. Source: MCD FY2025 10-K (SEC).
- Starbucks — FY2025 store-segment operating income: North America $3,156.7M (76.9%) vs. International $950.0M (23.1%). (North America op income fell ~41% in FY2025 on turnaround spend; International held ~flat.) Source: SBUX FY2025 10-K (SEC) / Q4 FY2025 release.
- Yum! Brands — FY2025 revenue by country: US $4,525M (55.1%) vs. international $3,689M (44.9%); ~72% of units are international (KFC ~90% non-US). Yum does not split operating profit by geography (it reports by brand division). Source: YUM FY2025 10-K (SEC) / Q4 2025 release.
- Chipotle — FY2025 10-K: 3,938 US company-operated + 104 international company-operated + 14 partner-operated = ~97% US. Source: CMG FY2025 10-K (SEC).
- Cava — FY2025 10-K: 439 restaurants, 28 states + DC, 100% US. Source: CAVA FY2025 10-K.
- Dutch Bros — FY2025 10-K: 1,136 shops, 25 states, 100% US. Source: BROS FY2025 10-K (SEC).
McDonald’s (MCD) — Q1 2026 (reported May 7, 2026)
Revenue $6,517M, +9.4% (strongest in several quarters); global comps +3.8%; US comps +3.9%; diluted EPS $2.78 (+7%), adjusted $2.83, beat. US guest counts were positive — CFO Ian Borden: “positive comparable sales and guest count gaps to our near-in competitors.” Low-income cohort commentary — CEO Chris Kempczinski: “the low income is absolutely still declining… not as pronounced as they were maybe 6 or 12 months ago when we were talking about high single digit”; on gas prices “disproportionately impact low-income consumers… the pressures there are going to continue.” Structure: ~95% franchised; 45,356 restaurants worldwide (FY2025 10-K, up from 43,477 at YE2024). Dividend: 49 consecutive annual increases (first paid 1976). Harry J. Sonneborn (McDonald’s first president / finance chief): “We are not technically in the food business. We are in the real estate business…” (the compressed “you’re in the real estate business” line is the film The Founder’s version). The quote is documented in John F. Love, McDonald’s: Behind the Arches (Bantam Books, 1986) — the definitive history of the company and the source usually cited for Sonneborn’s real-estate framing. Sources: John F. Love, McDonald’s: Behind the Arches (1986); McDonald’s Q1 2026 release (PRNewswire, May 7, 2026) + earnings-call transcript; FY2025 10-K.
Yum! Brands (YUM) — Q1 2026 (reported Apr 29, 2026)
Core/adjusted EPS $1.50, +15% YoY (GAAP EPS $1.55). Taco Bell (US): +8% same-store sales, its eighth consecutive quarter leading the US industry, roughly +3 points of it transactions; Taco Bell Division operating profit +16% to $281M (35.2% margin). Yum system-wide digital sales mix a record 63% (a company-wide figure, not Taco-Bell-specific). Structure: 97% franchised at Dec 31, 2025 (FY2025 10-K; down from 98% in FY2024). Taco Bell is ~44% of consolidated operating profit ($281M of $644M GAAP operating profit; ~38% measured against the four brand divisions’ summed profit). Portfolio drag: KFC US system sales −2%, Pizza Hut US same-store sales −4% with Pizza Hut Division operating profit −14% to $64M; Yum has put Pizza Hut under a strategic-options review (advisory charges ~$37M) and repeatedly frames results “excluding Pizza Hut.” Total system units at Dec 31 2025: 63,285 (KFC 33,897 / Pizza Hut 19,974 / Taco Bell 9,030 / Habit 384). Valuation: trailing P/E ~26x, forward P/E ~24x, market cap ~$44.5B. Sources: YUM Q1 2026 earnings release / 8-K (SEC EDGAR, Apr 29 2026); FY2025 10-K; stockanalysis.com.
Starbucks (SBUX) — FQ2 2026 (reported Apr 28, 2026)
Global comps +6.2%, “primarily driven by a 3.8% increase in comparable transactions and a 2.3% increase in average ticket.” US comparable sales +7.1% (transactions +4.3%, ticket +2.7%); North America +7.1% (transactions +4.4%, ticket +2.6%) — the US/NA figure used in the coffee scoreboard (Fig 4); the global +6.2% split is used in the decomposition (Fig 2). Guidance raised to global & US comparable sales growth of ≥5.0% (from ≥3%) and non-GAAP EPS $2.25–$2.45 (from $2.15–$2.40). 41,129 total stores at quarter-end (Mar 29, 2026): 52% company-operated, 48% licensed; US 16,944, China 7,991. China: Boyu Capital JV closed April 2, 2026 — Boyu funds hold 60%, Starbucks retains 40% and licenses brand/IP; China comps +0.5% (transactions +2.1%, ticket −1.6%). Source: SBUX FQ2 2026 release / 8-K (SEC).
Dutch Bros (BROS) — Q1 2026 (reported May 6, 2026)
System same-store sales +8.3% (transactions +5.1%); company-operated same-store sales +10.6% (transactions +6.9%). Company-operated shop revenue $429.1M, +31.5% (total revenue $464.4M, +30.8%). Adjusted diluted EPS $0.16 vs $0.14. FY2026 guidance raised across the board: total revenue $2.05–$2.08B, ≥185 system shop openings, same-store sales +4–6%, adjusted EBITDA $370–$380M. 1,177 shops across 25 states at Mar 31, 2026 (844 company-operated + 333 franchised). Long-term unit opportunity >7,000 US locations (raised from a prior 4,000 goal at the March 2025 Investor Day), with an intermediate milestone of 2,029 shops by year-end 2029. Founded 1992 in Grants Pass, Oregon by brothers Dane and Travis Boersma (drive-thru model from a pushcart; first drive-thru 1994). Valuation: trailing P/E ~116x, forward P/E ~73x (FY2026 basis), market cap ~$13.8B. Sources: Dutch Bros Q1 2026 release / 8-K (SEC EDGAR, May 6 2026); March 2025 Investor Day (BusinessWire); stockanalysis.com.
Chipotle (CMG) — Q1 2026 (reported Apr 29, 2026)
Comparable transactions +0.6% (comps +0.5%, average check −0.1%), ending a four-quarter streak of transaction declines (transactions fell in Q1–Q4 2025; the last positive print before Q1 2026 was Q4 2024 at +4.0%). Diluted EPS $0.23, −17.9%. Restaurant-level operating margin 23.7% adjusted (23.3% GAAP), down ~250bps YoY. AUV ~$3.09M. 4,090 company-owned restaurants (4,104 total); no franchisees; no debt. History: McDonald’s invested in Chipotle from 1998, built its stake to ~90%; Chipotle IPO’d January 26, 2006 at $22.00/share on the NYSE (closed its first day ~$44); McDonald’s fully exited by October 2006. 50-for-1 stock split — first post-split trading June 26, 2024 (split-adjusted IPO basis $0.44). Return since IPO (price-only, to the July 1 2026 close of $35.00): CMG ≈ +7,850% (~80×) vs MCD ≈ +670% (~7.7×) over the same span (MCD ~$35 in late January 2006, no split since 1999). A previously circulated “~14,000% vs ~200%” comparison was in error — the ~14,000% used Chipotle’s all-time-high price rather than the current price; the current-price figures above are the correction, both bases stated. Split-era ATH $68.55 (split-adjusted, June 18, 2024). Sources: CMG Q1 2026 8-K / release; company IR; SEC Form 424B1 (2006 prospectus); Chipotle IR (2024 split); Deseret News / Benzinga on the spin history.
Cava (CAVA) — Q1 2026 (16 weeks ended ~Apr 19, 2026)
Revenue +32.2% to $434.4M; same-restaurant sales +9.7%, split +6.8% traffic and +2.9% menu price/product mix; restaurant-level profit margin 25.1% ($108.9M) — higher than Chipotle’s 23.7%. Cash & investments ~$403M; zero interest-bearing debt (stockanalysis.com’s “$498.5M debt” reflects capitalized operating leases, not borrowings). Guidance raised (SRS +4.5–6.5%; 75–77 net new units). 459 restaurants at quarter-end. FY2025: revenue $1,169.3M (+22.5%), crossed $1B for the first time; 439 restaurants. June 2026 share move: a June 10, 2026 UBS upgrade to Buy (price target $90, from $85, analyst Dennis Geiger) drove a ~7% single-day gain and much of the June run-up — not an index inclusion (CAVA’s S&P MidCap 400 addition was March 2025; the June 2026 rebalance did not involve CAVA). Sources: CAVA Q1 2026 8-K / press release; FY2025 results (Feb 2026); Q1 FY2026 10-Q; UBS via Benzinga/Yahoo Finance (Jun 10 2026); S&P Global rebalance releases.
Competitive scoreboards (Figs 3, 4, 6, 7)
Every figure below is two-sourced (primary earnings release / SEC filing + one independent outlet or, for private chains, Technomic Top 500 / franchise-disclosure documents). Metrics are held consistent within each chart.
Fig 3 — value battle, latest-quarter US same-store / comparable sales: Taco Bell +8% (Yum Q1 2026; CNBC). Burger King US +5.8% (Restaurant Brands Q1 2026 8-K; StockTitan). McDonald’s US +3.9% (MCD Q1 2026 release; Restaurant Dive). Jack in the Box system −3.8% (fiscal Q2 2026, quarter ended April 12, 2026 — a different calendar than the March quarter; BusinessWire; Nation’s Restaurant News); Del Taco was divested Dec 2025, so this is the clean Jack brand. Wendy’s US −7.8% (Wendy’s Q1 2026 10-Q / 8-K; SEC). Sonic omitted (private / Inspire Brands, no brand-level disclosure).
Fig 4 — coffee battle, latest-quarter same-store / comparable sales: Dutch Bros system +8.3% (BROS Q1 2026 8-K; Motley Fool transcript). Starbucks US +7.1% (SBUX FQ2 2026 release; Motley Fool transcript). Tim Hortons +1.6% brand / +1.5% Canada (Restaurant Brands Q1 2026 release; StockTitan) — Canada-weighted. Omitted: Dunkin’ (private since 2020, no disclosed comp; the only credible figure is a Technomic ~+5.1% FY2025 systemwide-sales estimate, a different metric), Luckin −0.1% (Q1 2026 6-K; China-only, self-operated, on a just-restated definition). Note: no clean US independent-coffee same-store figure exists — the frequently cited “~3%” is World Coffee Portal’s UK outlet-growth number; WCP’s US branded-market figures are +6.6% sales / +4.2% outlets (Project Café USA 2026), a market-size metric, not SSS.
Fig 6 — bowl battle, latest-quarter same-store / comparable sales: CAVA +9.7% (Q1 2026 8-K; Motley Fool). Shake Shack +4.6% same-Shack (Q1 2026, 13 wks ended Apr 1 2026; IR release + shareholder letter). Chipotle +0.5% (Q1 2026 8-K; StockTitan). Portillo’s −0.1% (Q1 2026 release; Nation’s Restaurant News). Wingstop US domestic −8.7% (Q1 2026 8-K; Motley Fool) — ~4 pts of January-weather headwind. Sweetgreen −12.8% (Q1 2026 8-K; NRN / Restaurant Dive), its largest decline as a public company.
Fig 7 — cross-industry private board, FY2024 systemwide-sales growth (industry estimates, not filings; two sources each): 7 Brew +163% (~$502M systemwide, ~321 units; Technomic Top 500 via Restaurant Business / NRN; Franchise Times 2026 Fast & Serious No. 1) — Blackstone took majority ownership in 2024; FY2025 growth was +138% (~$1.2B, ~604 units), also two-sourced — FY2024 used here for year-consistency with the rest of the board. Dave’s Hot Chicken +57% (~$617M; Technomic Top 500 via Restaurant Business; Fortune) — Roark took majority control at a ~$1B valuation (June 2025). Raising Cane’s +32% (~$5B; Technomic Top 500 via NRN; +13.9% units). Scooter’s Coffee +28.3% (~$723M, 849 units, +13.2% units; Franchise Times Top 400 2025 No. 104; Technomic Top 500 via Restaurant Business). Jersey Mike’s ~+14% single-year (~$3.7B → ~$4.2B FY24→25; Technomic via Restaurant Business / Franchise Times) — Blackstone majority stake ~$8B (announced Nov 19 2024). Chick-fil-A +5.4% (US systemwide $22.7B; franchise-disclosure documents via NRN and Restaurant Business). Dunkin’ +3.5% (~$13.8B system, +306 net units; Franchise Times Top 400 2025 No. 12; Technomic Top 500 via Restaurant Business) — FY2025 was +5.1% (became the #5 US chain, passing Wendy’s). Crumbl excluded: FY2024 was a deceleration year (~+9% units, AUV off a 2023 decline), off-narrative for the board.
Dunkin’ scale (Battle II pointer): Dunkin’ is the largest US coffee chain by store count after Starbucks (#2). Starbucks US ~16,944 stores; Dunkin’ US ~9,700 at YE2024, crossing 10,000 in October 2025 (Darien, IL). Dutch Bros is #3, 7 Brew #4. Dunkin’ has been private since Inspire Brands (Roark Capital) took it private in December 2020 — hence no public comp. Sources: Restaurant Dive / Dunkin’-Inspire press release (Oct 2025, 10,000th US store); QSR Magazine 10,000-club roster (Technomic); 2026 Technomic Top 500 coverage (RB/NRN) ranking coffee brands “Starbucks, Dunkin’, Dutch Bros, 7 Brew.”