Sources: Wall Street Refuses to Price This Bull Like the Mammoth It Truly Is

Company Filings — Nvidia

Nvidia Corporation. Form 10-K, Fiscal Year 2026 (year ended January 25, 2026). Filed February 2026 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. SEC EDGAR. Source for: FY26 revenue ($215.9B), FY26 net income ($120.1B), FY26 data-center segment revenue ($193.7B), gross margin (71%), net margin (56%), diluted share count (~24.5B), cash + marketable securities ($50B+), debt ($9.5B), strategic equity stakes (~$22B), FY26 free cash flow ($97B).

Nvidia Corporation. Form 10-K filings, FY20 through FY25, via SEC EDGAR (same link above). Source for the multi-year revenue history in Figure 1: FY20 $10.9B, FY21 $16.7B, FY22 $26.9B, FY23 $27.0B, FY24 $60.9B, FY25 $130.5B.

Global Net-Income Leaderboard (Figure 2)

All peer figures pulled from each company’s most recent annual filing via SEC EDGAR XBRL company-concept API or, for Aramco, TADAWUL filings.

Alphabet Inc. Form 10-K, CY2025. SEC EDGAR. Source: net income $132.2B.
Apple Inc. FY25 (year ended September 2025). Source: net income $112.0B (per Apple’s Q4 FY25 8-K earnings release). SEC EDGAR.
Saudi Aramco. Annual report FY24 (calendar year 2024). Aramco Investor Relations. Source: net income $105.0B (converted from SAR at 3.75 fixed peg).
Microsoft Corporation. Form 10-K, FY25 (year ended June 2025). SEC EDGAR. Source: net income $101.8B.
Amazon.com, Inc. Form 10-K, CY2025. SEC EDGAR. Source: net income $77.7B.
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Form 10-K, CY2025. SEC EDGAR. Source: net income $67.0B.
Meta Platforms, Inc. Form 10-K, CY2025. SEC EDGAR. Source: net income $60.5B.

Megacap YoY Net-Income Growth (Figure 3)

Growth rates derived from the same 10-K filings above (current year vs. prior year). Approximate, rounded to the nearest whole percent.

NVDA 65% (FY26 vs FY25)
GOOG 31% (CY2025 vs CY2024)
META 28% (CY2025 vs CY2024)
MSFT 16% (FY25 vs FY24)
AMZN 13% (CY2025 vs CY2024)
AAPL 3% (normalized for a one-time FY24 EU tax charge that depressed the base; raw FY25/FY24 net-income growth was approximately 20%). For the EU tax charge context, see Apple’s FY24 Form 10-K filing and the European Commission’s August 2016 state-aid ruling.

Supplemental: stockanalysis.com aggregations of company filings used as a sanity-check cross-reference. stockanalysis.com.

Microsoft 1999 Net-Income Comp + Inflation Adjustment

Microsoft Corporation. Form 10-K, FY1999 (year ended June 30, 1999). SEC EDGAR archive. Source for the approximately $4B of incremental net income year-over-year cited as the historical analog.

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. CPI Inflation Calculator. bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm. Used to convert $4 billion (1999) → approximately $7.7 billion (2025), reflecting cumulative CPI-U inflation of 93.4% over the 1999–2025 period (multiplier ≈ 1.934x). Cross-checked via in2013dollars.com.

Endpoint estimates (~2% in 2016, ~18% in 2026) sourced from widely-cited market commentary aggregating S&P 500 GICS sector classifications and constituent market-cap weights. Intermediate years interpolated to convey the accelerating post-2020 trajectory. Not index-provider data; treat as an illustrative trend rather than an authoritative weight history.

Micron Update — May 26, 2026

UBS / Timothy Arcuri. Research note raising Micron Technology (MU) price target from $535 to $1,625, published pre-market May 26, 2026. Coverage:

Source data: Micron closed at $895.88 on May 26, 2026 (+19.29%), establishing a market capitalization of approximately $1.010 trillion. New PT of $1,625 = 3.04x former PT ($535); roughly 1.81x the May 26 close.

Net Margins (Figure 5)

Most-recent fiscal-year net margins computed from each company’s 10-K (net income / revenue):

NVDA 56% (FY26 10-K)
META 36% (CY2025)
MSFT 36% (FY25)
GOOGL 30% (CY2025)
AAPL 25% (FY25)
AMZN 9% (CY2025)

Same SEC EDGAR links as the Figure 2 section above. Comparative context on Samsung semiconductor margins and Intel monopoly-era margins drawn from publicly-reported segment data in each company’s annual filings.

Hyperscaler Capex (Figure 6)

Platformonomics. “Cloud Capex Trends.” Charles Fitzgerald’s running aggregation of Big Four hyperscaler capital expenditure. platformonomics.com. Source for the multi-year aggregated capex trajectory.

Underlying company filings:

Microsoft capex via FY 10-K cash flow statements
Alphabet capex via CY 10-K cash flow statements
Amazon capex via CY 10-K cash flow statements (“purchases of property and equipment”)
Meta capex via CY 10-K cash flow statements

2026E figures reflect company guidance from CY2025 Q4 earnings calls / management commentary.

TARP comparison. Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 authorized $700B for the Troubled Asset Relief Program. U.S. Treasury TARP Programs.

Valuation Scenarios (Figure 7)

Street consensus estimates. Aggregated analyst projections for Nvidia FY27 and FY28: revenue ($375.7B FY27, $498.6B FY28) and EPS ($8.47 FY27, $11.57 FY28). Sources: sell-side aggregators including Yahoo Finance analyst estimates and stockanalysis.com forecasts. Diluted share count (~24.5B) from Nvidia’s FY26 10-K.

Author’s scenario framework:

Base: Street EPS × 35x multiple (compressed from current ~43x) → ~$9.9T at FY28
Bull: Street EPS × 40x → ~$11.6T at FY28
Bear: ~$196B NI × 28x multiple → ~$5.5T (sideways trade)

NVDA Trailing-12-Month Price (Figure 8)

NVDA daily closing prices from May 2025 through May 2026. Monthly endpoints = last trading day (or last weekly close) of each calendar month. Source: financial data provider’s daily price API. Final point reflects the May 26, 2026 close ($214.86).

China Revenue + Export Controls

Nvidia’s greater-China revenue (~$19.7B FY26, ~9% of total, down from ~21% in FY23) disclosed in the FY26 10-K geographic segment breakdown. U.S. export-control context from Bureau of Industry and Security (Department of Commerce) advanced-computing rules. bis.doc.gov.

TSMC + Taiwan Concentration

Taiwan Stock Exchange. Aggregate market capitalization figures. twse.com.tw. Cross-reference: companiesmarketcap.com country rankings for the Taiwan vs India comparison (~$4.95T vs prior India market cap, fifth-largest globally).

TSMC as Nvidia’s exclusive leading-edge foundry partner: Nvidia FY26 10-K supply-chain risk disclosures and TSMC investor materials. tsmc.com/investor.

What Makes Nvidia Special — Attribution

The three-paragraph technical explainer in the “What Makes Nvidia Special” section was generated by Claude (Anthropic), Claude Opus 4.7 model, in response to the prompt: “Describe Nvidia, what it does, and why it does it better than everyone else.” Italic framing line in the article body notes this attribution explicitly. No factual claim in those three paragraphs is novel to the article; CUDA dates, GPU pricing ranges, and the 80–85% AI accelerator market-share estimate are all consistent with publicly-reported industry data circa 2025–2026.

Stock Quotes / Market Data

NVDA, MU, and peer pricing throughout: financial data provider’s daily closing price API, accessed May 2026. NVDA $5.21T market cap anchor: NVDA market cap on the morning of Tuesday, May 26, 2026 (open: $216.54, close: $214.86 × ~24.5B diluted shares).

Disclosure

The author may hold positions in securities discussed. This piece is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. See the site disclaimer in the footer of every page.